In addition to frequent visits to North Korea and China, I have a chance to eat dinner with a person who is very bright in the international situation, and I am writing because there are some interesting stories and I was able to confirm my thoughts during the conversation with him. First of all, Rice's tour is generally the same as the general predictors' views in the big picture. 1. Pressure on China's role in the six-party talks 2. Notification of the resumption of the six-party talks (end of June) - Regarding the U.N. referral of the North Korean nuclear issue and the North Korean blockade operation, but these are not the areas I paid attention to. It's weird if you don't predict it. The discord between Korea, the U.S., and Japan over Dokdo is popping up in an unexpected direction...It goes hand in hand with this. In fact, we have been predicting the direction for a long time, but the role of the balancer of Northeast Asia...This is "Neutral Equidistant Diplomacy." The fact that I am surprised myself is that the U.S. response was not so great even though the Korean government said it would "diplomat neutral distance." Of course, the commander of the Eighth U.S. Army is on his own, but this is a vent of anger at the failure of the Korea-U.S.-Japan Triangle Alliance plan. If the U.S. approached Korea's change of attitude from a "betrayal" perspective, as the Chosun Ilbo was excited, and if the Korean government hadn't persuaded the U.S. enough, I think the response would have been destructive. In fact, it can be seen that the change in the attitude of the United States was already seen in Bush and Rice's mention of the situation in Korea after the impeachment. In other words, when the Korean people stopped the impeachment with candles, Bush or Rice commonly uses expressions like "I am deeply impressed by the growth of democracy in Korea." In other words, Korea is now out of the national level that the U.S. will control through "drafts." In other words, it is the same story as the United States lost control. The United States is a self-proclaimed "great power." What I have to admit is that I admit it coolly. In that sense, based on this time, close cooperation between the Grand National Party and the United States is over. As I mentioned in the previous article, the United States was clearly behind the impeachment. It was the same with the military trend at the time, and I think it is impossible without the death of the Democratic Party, which was deeply coordinated with the Grand National Party, behind the crazy unity of politics. In other words, it is unreasonable to assume that they proceeded without consultation with the United States to reject regime change that is close to national rebellion without the consent of the people. However, the United States, which confirmed the "will" of Koreans through impeachment, decided that the Grand National Party did not have the ability to take over, and the Chosun Ilbo's chaotic stance now seems to be due to the lack of such "order" from the United States. In other words, I always move after being instructed, and then I go back and forth because I do it on my own. Let's talk a little bit about the impeachment. As Prime Minister Goh Kun stepped down, one of the few words he left was, "Because I don't trust people that much..."There were some words that said, 'Oh, What this means is very important, but people just saw the degree of discord between the president and the prime minister and took issue with President Roh's leadership. However, as mentioned in the last article, the classic Prime Minister's remarks at Harvard School were exactly the same as the hawk's hard-line arguments, and in retrospect, the hawk who insisted on hard-line opposition during the June 1987 uprising. In other words, this means that there has never been a time when he was a moderate. I've always followed America. Then, how should we interpret that he was seen as a very favorable person to all media, regardless of the ruling and opposition parties? It can be seen as the opposite of what President Roh was seen as unfriendly to all media, regardless of the ruling and opposition parties. In general, I remember that the relationship with the United States was very good for those who maintained favor beyond the boundaries of the ruling and opposition parties. The words went a little sideways, but during the impeachment period, there was a struggle, but through this process, President Roh was able to identify those who acted against the interests of the state and the people. In the early days, since President Roh took office, he has not had his aides around him. It used a lot of DJ personnel according to the situation at the time, and Moon Hee-sang and others are representative. Through this, after receiving a stable takeover of the regime, they are sent out and after the impeachment, they are written around people who have been reliably verified. In other words, in the process of taking over the regime, people linked to the old regime were hired and organized, and since then, many pro-American groups have been appointed for dialogue with the United States, but unfortunately, this has been filtered through impeachment. The people who are now appointed can be seen as those who have been appointed out of necessity to carry out the diplomatic and defense lines of the participatory government. In other words, the actual operation of the state took place after the impeachment. (Let's disconnect and reconnect because the text is getting longer) *The abstracted text is located on the homepage of Yoon Copi-nim at www.funnyone.net. This means that after the impeachment, the United States gave up applying the same kind of "draft" to South Korea, such as Jakgye 5030. Just before the presidential election, you will remember that the United States illegally distributed North Korea's missile carriers and tried to put up a large-scale trick to help candidate Lee, but was humiliated and stepped down. As such, the United States has constantly intervened in the political situation of South Korea and has never given up such influence. Nevertheless, after the impeachment, I became proud of the so-called "democratic state they created." In other words, he admitted defeat. It does not recognize the independent rights of the government to participate in the North Korean nuclear issue, but by decisively abandoning the role of representatives of anti-reformers, including the Joseon Dong-A and the Grand National Party, the old forces on this land are weakening and weakening. Strange changes are being detected now because the Chosun Ilbo, which cannot be unaware of such a situation, also has to find a way to live. However, personally, I don't think it will be possible to expect the Chosun Ilbo to transform itself. From a historical point of view, it is right to fail. So, what happened to Jakgye 5030, which was supposed to be applied to North Korea? I think this is the key point of Rice's tour of Northeast Asia. South Korea is refusing to play the role of the U.S. and Japan in the Korea-U.S.-Japan Triangle Military Alliance while establishing political and diplomatic confrontations with Japan through the Dokdo issue. In other words, South Korea is openly rejecting military cooperation because it strengthens the Korea-U.S. alliance, but it is not an alliance with Japan. If the Korea-U.S.-Japan triangular military alliance is shaken out of fear of U.S. pressure, the Korean Peninsula will eventually play a role in the Taiwan-China conflict, which is likely to break out before 2008. In other words, it will attract both the U.S. and Japanese troops and turn the Korean Peninsula into a battlefield. After all, it's a repeat of the end of the year. Therefore, President Roh Moo Hyun is desperately trying to get out of the Korea-U.S.-Japan Triangle Military Alliance, and this is not a matter of the nature of the leisurely Korea-U.S. conflict. This is because the existence of the nation and the state is at stake. If any media, group, or individual is wrapped in that way, it reveals that they are the forces against the national interest. When I argued before the Dokdo issue arose, I said that the Korea-U.S.-Japan Triangle Alliance should not be included, but that the Korea-U.S. Alliance should be strengthened. It is inevitable. Neutral equidistant diplomacy presupposes a friendly relationship with both sides. In order for Korea to achieve a balance between China and the United States, it must first be trusted by both sides. Then, how does the U.S. view South Korea's "Northeast Asian Balancer Theory"? You have to make it a compliment. Of course, critical words are popping up in the U.S. media and military, wondering if Korea is trying to escape from U.S. influence, but the U.S. has no choice but to admit its role due to U.S. economic and military interests. Some people were worried that the national economy would face a crisis like the 1997 IMF crisis if they didn't listen to the United States, which is just a coincidence. At that time, we improved our economic structure and now we have a lot of foreign exchange reserves, but on the contrary, Japan is facing a time when bonds issued at the time of IMF return to their 10-year maturity through incomprehensible behavior of issuing bonds and filling the deficit again. In other words, it means that the economic condition is not so dangerous. This is one of the reasons why Japan sincerely wishes for a war to break out in Northeast Asia. Rather than waiting for the collapse from the inside, they want to find a breakthrough from the outside. In this situation, if the U.S. tries to intervene in Asia through the financial market again, the first to collapse is not Korea or China, but Japan. Currently, the Japanese government's response to the Korean Peninsula, such as the Dokdo issue and the textbook issue, is based on this psychological anxiety. The Japanese people may not be able to dream, but there is a widespread perception among Japanese leaders that it is difficult to find a breakthrough other than war. Then, how is the participating government trying to create the role of a Northeast Asian balancer by drawing cooperation with the United States? The keyword for this is self-defense. The commander of the U.S. Eighth Army responded by saying that he would dispose of all stockpiles of ammunition in response to the reduction in the amount of defense support for the U.S. forces in Korea, which is actually a good procedure. This is because the amount of ammunition currently held by our military is far short of the amount available in wartime. About eight days are in our hands, and the rest are all owned by the U.S. military. I'm going to buy this for 1 trillion won. In addition, it is said that Air Force Chief of Staff Lee Han-ho expressed his intention to purchase a considerable amount of additional U.S. F15K during his visit to the U.S. in late March through various channels such as the U.S. Navy. It hasn't been officially announced yet...This is also a positive signal. (There is a theory that there are 80 units) The F15K is actually a fighter jet. It's not a fighter. This small fighter has a bomb loading capacity of more than 6.5 tons, compared to the B-29, which was famous as a bomber in World War II. In fact, having an F15K means operating a large number of fighter jets with a range of more than 1,800 kilometers of activity, including Tokyo and Beijing. In fact, military experts have argued that bringing in about half of the latest F16 aircraft, such as the F16 Block 60, in the purchase of secondary fighter jets is more economical and reasonable for existing military strategies. Of course, the F15K that I ordered 40 units needs to be brought in a little more so that there is no problem with the operation (don't talk about Rafale or Eurofighter). The fact that the participating government tried to buy the F15K to Boeing through Air Force Chief of Staff Lee Han-ho means that South Korea was trying to secure independent operational capabilities on the Korean Peninsula. In other words, for the munitions industry, which has the greatest influence on the U.S. government, Korea's purchase can appear as an exercise of pressure to maintain solid relations with Korea. In other words, if Korea-U.S. relations become unstable, it will be the U.S. military industry that suffers the most. Looking at these points, it is easy to understand that it is difficult for the United States to unilaterally undermine the alliance against South Korea's "Northeast Asia Balancer Theory." In conclusion, Japan may be able to participate in the triangular alliance between Taiwan and the United States, but it will be difficult to intervene on the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, for China, this movement of Korea is bound to be very encouraging. They can also send diplomatic trust because Korea confides in a buffer zone at a time when U.S. pressure on China intensifies. In the end, equidistant diplomacy is maintained only when friendly relations are maintained with both sides through this process. However, one misunderstanding is that there are people and the media who criticize such neutral diplomacy as nonsense, saying that the participating government operates policies with permanent time in mind as if it were Switzerland. I think this is an incident that comes out because it is dark in the current situation in Northeast Asia. The Korean Peninsula cannot or cannot be a permanent neutral zone. In other words, the participatory government's neutral equidistant diplomacy is a temporary strategy for achieving several objectives. First, the intention to avoid war on the Korean Peninsula by being drawn into the Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance. Second, regardless of the aspect of the conflict between the U.S. and China, the intention is to maintain influence over North Korea by maintaining friendly relations. In other words, it is the best strategy for unification in a large framework, and in a small way, it is a gesture to prevent war within the Korean Peninsula. Now, I'll give you information about North Korea, and the United States is trying to spread... Let's take a look at Rice's final strategy. I had the opportunity to hear from people from third countries who recently visited North Korea, who traveled freely throughout Pyongyang and contacted North Koreans. One interesting fact may be limited to Pyongyang, but these Pyongyang residents were aware of the political situation in South Korea. He even witnessed South Korean news being aired on TV without restrictions for a few minutes a day. What he felt in his conversation with Pyongyang residents is that they know very much, and this communication is that the North Korean system is more loose than we know. In addition, what I heard through a foreign diplomat stationed in Pyongyang was that if China decides to do so, it can remove the Kim Jong Il regime at any time, and that the North Korean military seems to have a very different view from Kim Jong Il. There are even rumors inside China that they are fully prepared to take over the North Korean regime (in the nuance of the general-level remarks). This is not a very new story given that China has long protected those who have resistance to the North Korean regime as a result of North Korea's neutral diplomacy after the border dispute between China and the Soviet Union. However, what I am paying attention to is how Rice established a government that would faithfully follow her strategy on the Korean Peninsula, that is, the Korea-U.S.-Japan Triangle Military Alliance, and revised the strategy of mobilizing force to organize North Korea and press China sequentially. He said he would not rule out the option to use force, but it seems certain that he left it out of the first place, and I don't think the strategy the United States chose is to pressure North Korea to refer to the United Nations and block the sea. This is because it will actually be an inefficient tactic in the presence of open channels such as China, Russia, and South Korea. In other words, it is an incidental card, and what if Rice had a way to settle the Korean Peninsula before the 2008 Beijing Olympics conflict between Taiwan and China? It was probably a way to support North Korea's internal coup in accordance with Operation 5030, and it is very likely that the United States is not directly intervening, but instigating through China. In other words, the collapse of the North Korean regime is consistent with both U.S. and China's interests, and the U.S. can be seen as a way to remove the North Korean regime and acquire nuclear weapons without military intervention. However, this is only an American "candy game," as I will tell you in advance. In other words, after giving candy to a child and making him run errands, he takes the candy back after the errand is over...That kind of game. Here, the United States is aiming for one more advantage. In other words, if North Korea collapses internally, it is obvious that South Korea will have no choice but to intervene deeply in the North Korean issue even if the U.S. does not intervene thereafter, and that it will conflict with China in the process. If Rice had focused on this, the removal of the North Korean regime through China could have been more attractive. In other words, it can be a card that kills two birds with one stone, which has no choice but to go to military and diplomatic conflict with China without urging South Korea. However, this is a card that only the U.S. and China can or should not know. I insist that these cards are in progress because there are not many other ways for the United States to deal with the North Korean nuclear issue relatively wisely. In addition, it is very worrisome that the international situation that I feel with my skin and those with an international perspective who know North Korea and China a lot are in agreement. In a way, it would be better for the government to establish active countermeasures against the "refugee" problem that the U.S. has in its operation plan. The inevitable reaction that will take place after the collapse of the North Korean regime is the collapse of the ceasefire line at once and a large number of refugees come over. On the contrary, if this does not happen, it should be considered that North Korea is completely under the influence of China. Therefore, more active government preparation is needed. What I'm talking about may be just one scenario surrounding the Korean Peninsula, but this scenario is the result of a compression of long-term claims. Predictions that deviate significantly from this point will not come out for me in the future. The six-party talks are now just a meaningless dance floor for all six parties involved in the talks. The Korean government is the only one that has not given up hope for the six-party talks. No, perhaps only the parties to the two Koreas. The strategic choice between the U.S. and Rice is believed to have crossed the six-party talks and entered the secret room. One interesting thing is that I feel strongly that President Roh Moo Hyun has been preparing for this situation step by step. In other words, the statement that we would no longer talk about the past at the Jeju Island talks was quite criticized at the time, but now it is recognized as an example of great concessions and generosity in Korea-Japan relations. Nevertheless, Japan is deteriorating Korea-Japan relations without reflecting on the past. It seems to be in the same vein as being cursed by supporters by sending national troops to the Iraq war. At that time, there were a few voices saying that such a choice could be used urgently later in national strategy. Obviously, it is one card that the United States has no choice but to falter in dealing with Korea. And these procedures, that is, yielding one step first, preparing, and punishing the other person's mistakes...I think this kind of diplomatic strategy should be praised by President Roh, who has never seen it in Korean diplomatic history. It is right to postpone the evaluation of the Northeast Asian Balancer theory. Because this is a plan that hasn't even started yet. And if you open your eyes to the independence and meaning of these arguments, you should be thrilled. This is because it is a shout of self-reliance that resonates in the process of Korea becoming independent.
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