The internet of 2005 had a different rhythm.
Before feeds splintered the news into rage-sized bites, people wrote long posts with the confidence of a weather forecast: Believe me—this is how the next fifty years will go.
I don’t love prophecy. Prophecies tend to skip the hard part (evidence) and sprint to the fun part (certainty).
But rereading that era’s “50-year prediction” does reveal something worth taking seriously: it captured the mood of the mid-2000s—war fatigue from Iraq, swelling anti-American sentiment, and the sense that China’s rise would bend the global map.
So let’s do the fairest thing possible: not mock it, not worship it—grade it.
Fifty years isn’t up. But twenty years is enough for a brutal midterm.
1) Iraq: “America will eventually leave.”
Grade: Mostly correct—with a twist ending.
The prediction’s first claim is simple: the United States would leave Iraq.
In 2011, the U.S. withdrew its remaining troops from Iraq, formally ending the military mission at the time. (Reuters)
But history hates clean endings. The “leave” that sounded final in 2011 became, in practice, a change of posture—especially as security realities shifted. By late 2021, the U.S. described its role as transitioning away from a combat mission and toward advising and assistance. (War on the Rocks)
So the prophecy didn’t perfectly predict the shape of the outcome, but it nailed a deeper mechanism:
wars often end less like victories and more like balance sheets—fatigue, cost, and political gravity. (Reuters)
2) “Anti-Americanism will unite the Islamic world… but Saudi and Iran will compete for leadership.”
Grade: Half right, half fantasy.
The rivalry part? Real. The Middle East has featured intense competition among regional powers for influence and legitimacy.
The “unite the Islamic world” part? Not really.
The region didn’t merge into one bloc; it behaved more like a layered chessboard of intersecting interests—states, sects, economics, security pacts, domestic politics, proxy struggles, and shifting alliances.
Still, the prophecy gestured at a useful truth: rivalry can coexist with moments of détente. In 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic relations in a China-brokered deal—an image that doesn’t scream “eternal hostility,” but rather exhausted realism. (Reuters)
So: not unity—but periodic recalibration.
3) China: “China will grow—and nationalism becomes a card.”
Grade: Strong on direction, weaker on simplicity.
China’s growth story is impossible to ignore. By 2024, World Bank figures put the U.S. at roughly $29T GDP and China at roughly the high-teens trillions, a scale that makes “two heavyweights” feel more accurate than “one empire, one challenger.” (wdi.worldbank.org)
That matters because it reframes the prophecy’s implied ending. The world didn’t simply become “post-America.”
It became a world where gravity has at least two major centers, and everyone else learns the art of living between them.
As for nationalism: the prediction wasn’t “wrong,” but it was too neat. Nationalism isn’t a single lever you pull; it’s a whole dashboard—identity, legitimacy, grievances, pride, historical memory, and domestic narrative management. When great powers grow, identity politics doesn’t vanish—it evolves into strategy.
4) Alliances: “As China’s market grows, countries won’t need the U.S.”
Grade: Wrong in form, right in spirit.
This is where the 2005 post drew international politics as a straight line.
Reality turned into a balancing act: economics with China, security with the U.S. For many countries, that became the default posture—not betrayal, but constant negotiation.
Alliances aren’t romance. They’re contracts—and contracts get revised.
5) The most dangerous claim: “WMD know-how will spread through shadow partnerships.”
Grade: Treat as a symptom, not a forecast.
This is the kind of line that was common in early-2000s internet geopolitics: take two fears and weld them into a bigger fear.
If you want to keep that section, the safest—and honestly smartest—rewrite is this:
It reveals what people were afraid of in 2005:
that war would radicalize regions, and that technology (or terror) would spread faster than diplomacy could contain.
Sometimes the value of a prediction isn’t the information. It’s the shape of the era’s anxiety.
6) Final exam question: “Will the world split into two camps—a second Cold War?”
Grade: In progress… but the trendline is visible.
We haven’t arrived at a clean two-block planet. Yet we have entered an era where countries constantly calculate how to survive between major powers—and the list of bargaining chips has exploded: semiconductors, batteries, data, energy, supply chains, demographics, internal polarization.
So here’s the best verdict:
The 2005 post didn’t correctly predict all events.
But it touched several durable rules of the game:
Wars end via exhaustion and cost, not tidy finales. (Reuters)
Rivalries don’t guarantee unity; they do guarantee realignment moments. (Reuters)
A world with multiple economic gravity wells forces everyone into hedging. (wdi.worldbank.org)
Modding Ideas (Yes—this concept is very moddable)
A) Civilization-style: 1 Wonder + 1 Doctrine System
Wonder: Global Supply Chain Nexus
Era: Information / Future
Effect ideas:
+2 Trade Routes
International routes grant bonus Gold + Science per destination
Reduced losses from sanctions/war disruption (trade resilience)
Theme: Power isn’t just carriers and missiles—it’s logistics, standards, and chokepoints.
Policy / Ideology: “Hedging Doctrine”
Bonus when maintaining trade/relations with both superpowers
But during crises, a “Choose a Side” event triggers: big rewards + big costs
Long-term: trust penalties accumulate if you keep playing both sides too perfectly
This turns geopolitics into what it often is: a system of conditional optimization, not moral clarity.
B) Paradox-style: This shines as a scenario + event chains
Scenario: “2005 Start — Cold War 2.0 (Not Yet Hot)”
Core mechanics:
Proxy wars > direct great-power wars
Sanctions / coups / civil wars / information ops decide outcomes
Domestic war fatigue constrains militarism (very Iraq-coded). (Reuters)
Event Chain: “Saudi–Iran Reset”
Rivalry meter stays high
But détente windows appear under pressure (economy, unrest, external mediation) (Reuters)
Players can choose: escalate, freeze, or normalize—each with long-term tradeoffs
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