Was Malthus Wrong – Or Are We Just Too Relaxed?
Optimists vs. Pessimists on Population, Resources, and Nature
1) “Population grows geometrically, food only arithmetically” – Malthus’ uneasy intuition
In 1798, the English cleric and economist Thomas Malthus published
An Essay on the Principle of Population, where he famously argued:
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Population grows geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…)
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Food supply grows only arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…) (oll.libertyfund.org)
If nothing checks this trend, he thought, population will eventually outstrip food production,
and then mechanisms like war, disease, famine, and poverty will step in to “correct” the numbers. (Wikipedia)
In short, his message was:
“A rosy utopia? Not happening.
Humanity will always run up against limits and collisions.”
A cold, sharp warning against easy optimism.
2) Why Malthus was called “wrong” for 200 years
For about two centuries after his book, Malthus has often been treated as a failed pessimist.
There are two big reasons why.
① The productivity revolution
Since Malthus’ time in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, humanity has gone through:
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Chemical fertilizers, better crop varieties, irrigation systems, farm machinery
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And, in the mid-20th century, the Green Revolution
Together these drove agricultural productivity through the roof. (Wikipedia)
In the 20th century alone, world population more than quadrupled,
and yet average calories available per person actually increased. (Wikipedia)
If you plug that into Malthus’ simple model, we should have hit a food apocalypse long ago—
but reality refused to follow that script.
② Demographic transition – after industrialization, birth rates fall
The second piece is what we now call the demographic transition.
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In the early stages of industrialization, death rates fall first, so population booms.
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But once a country reaches a certain level of income, education, and social welfare,
birth rates start to drop sharply, and population growth slows. (ResearchGate)
In many countries—across Europe, and in places like Korea and Japan—
the big worry today is not “too many babies,” but low fertility and population decline.
That’s a situation Malthus never really imagined.
So many economists and techno-optimists say:
“Malthus was wrong because he didn’t anticipate technological progress and demographic transition.”
Which is partly true.
But is that really the end of the story?
3) Neo-Malthusianism – tug-of-war between resource depletion and substitution
Over time, Malthus’ core concern has morphed a bit.
The question now is less:
“Will we run out of food?”
and more:
“What happens if we hit limits on resources as a whole—
energy, minerals, water, soil?”
Oil depletion, rare metals, water shortages, shrinking arable land…
Bundle these together and you get what’s often called neo-Malthusianism. (ResearchGate)
On the other side, resource optimists respond like this:
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When the stock of a resource shrinks, its price rises.
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As prices rise, firms and researchers:
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Look for new deposits, and
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Develop substitute resources and new technologies. (ResearchGate)
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Thus, simple doomsday stories like “If this resource runs out, humanity is finished”
rarely play out as advertised.
Oil is the classic case.
Since the 1970s and 80s, we’ve heard repeated “peak oil” narratives about imminent depletion.
Yet technological advances, new discoveries, and the shale revolution have so far kept the
“we literally run out of oil” scenario from becoming reality.
In textbook economics, this all gets wrapped up as:
“Scarcity is largely managed through prices and innovation.”
On that logic, it’s very tempting to side with the optimists.
But there’s a gaping hole in this picture.
4) Problem #1 – Nature is not a “background object,” it’s the rules of the game
In traditional economic models, nature usually shows up in two roles:
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As resources: oil, minerals, land, forests, fisheries…
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As sinks: the atmosphere that absorbs CO₂, rivers that carry away pollutants…
In other words, nature is treated as an input warehouse and a waste dump
for human activity.
Our choices are always framed in terms of human utility and profit,
and nature appears only as the object of those utility functions.
That’s why, even when economics talks about “environmental destruction,”
it tends to package it as an externality:
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Firm A pollutes in order to raise its profits.
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The damage is passed on to third parties and to ecosystems.
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If this cost isn’t reflected in prices, the market leads to “overproduction.”
To fix this, economists came up with ideas like the Pigouvian tax. (Investopedia)
The idea is:
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For activities like pollution or carbon emissions that impose costs on society as a whole,
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You impose a tax equal to that social cost,
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So that “private cost + social cost = the real price.”
But in the 21st century, we’re seeing warning signals that go way beyond “fix the externality with a tax.”
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The IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) estimates that current extinction rates are up to 1,000 times higher than natural background levels. (files.ipbes.net)
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Research on planetary boundaries suggests that we’ve already overshot 6 out of 9 key Earth-system thresholds. (Science)
This implies that nature is no longer just a “background” that silently absorbs our externalities.
The rules of the game themselves are starting to warp.
Climate, biodiversity, water cycles, soils, oceans…
These aren’t issues you can fix by tweaking one variable at a time.
They’re signals that the Earth system as a whole is being pushed toward its limits.
At this point, Malthus’ old question comes back in a new form:
“Are our beloved ideas of ‘substitution’ and ‘market adjustment’
actually operating inside the safe zone of the Earth system—
or are we quietly betting beyond that boundary?”
5) Problem #2 – What money hides from view
The second uncomfortable question is this:
“If the world produces more than enough food overall,
why are people still starving in Africa and other regions?”
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
about one-third of all food produced globally is lost or wasted every year—
through post-harvest losses, retail waste, and household food waste. (FAOHome)
And yet on the same planet:
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More than 600 million people suffer from chronic hunger and malnutrition, (FAO Open Knowledge)
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And in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, food crises keep recurring
due to climate shocks, civil conflict, and political instability.
Economics textbooks explain it like this:
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Grain markets are driven by international prices.
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A small number of highly productive countries dominate exports.
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Firms and farmers, aiming at profit maximization, choose among:
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exporting,
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holding stocks,
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dumping surpluses,
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or switching uses (feed, biofuel, etc.).
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In this process, people who are “too poor to pay market prices”
are simply pushed outside the demand curve.
Poor countries may have a clear need,
but from the market’s perspective, that doesn’t count as “effective demand”—
demand backed by money.
So the real picture looks like this:
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On a global scale, we produce enough calories to feed humanity.
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Huge quantities of food are discarded along the supply chain and at the consumer level.
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Yet the poorest people still die of hunger.
Malthus worried about the physical limit of production.
Our 21st-century reality looks much more like a limit of distribution, prices, and power structures.
6) Between optimism and pessimism – what we must not overlook
Let’s recap the story so far:
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Malthus’ population theory is often said to be “historically wrong”
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because he failed to anticipate technological progress and demographic transition. (Wikipedia)
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Neo-Malthusian resource arguments are criticized as
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partial-equilibrium models that ignore prices, substitutes, and innovation. (ResearchGate)
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Optimists argue that:
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“Technology, markets, and innovation have solved most problems so far,
and they’ll keep doing so.”
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But as this discussion keeps prodding us to notice,
this optimism rests on two hidden assumptions:
① The central actor is always humanity; nature is just an instrument.
② Ultimately, all values can be translated into money.
The problem is that both assumptions are now cracking.
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Treating nature purely as a tool has boomeranged back at us in the form of
climate crisis, mass extinction, and overshooting planetary boundaries. (Science) -
A system that pushes hundreds of millions of lives outside the market
simply because they lack money is becoming morally, and in terms of long-term stability,
increasingly hard to defend.
So a natural question follows:
“Can our current economic and social system—unchanged—
really deliver what we call ‘sustainable development’?”
7) What we need is not “new pessimism,” but a paradigm shift
The point here is not to resurrect Malthus wholesale,
and it’s also not to relax into “technology will fix everything” complacency.
What we actually need looks more like this:
1. Treat nature not as an externality, but as a condition
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Take the planetary boundaries of the Earth system
and embed them as hard rules in policy, investment, and corporate strategy. (Science)
2. Build an economy with metrics beyond money
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Use tools like carbon pricing and Pigouvian taxes to internalize externalities. (Investopedia)
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At the same time, expand indicators beyond GDP to track
welfare, environmental health, and inequality together.
3. Global solidarity that starts from the most vulnerable
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The damage from climate and food crises tends to fall hardest on countries
that historically emitted less and benefited less. (Financial Times) -
Climate finance, technology transfer, and debt relief are not just “charity”;
they’re closer to insurance for stabilizing the system as a whole.
4. A philosophical rethinking of “development”
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Seeing nature not as something to conquer, but as a “condition we must live with.”
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Shifting the goal from simply “more” to
“longer, more widely shared, and more livable.”
Original-flavor Malthusian pessimism was too simple.
Twentieth-century optimism was too human-centered.
Now we need a new frame that looks at:
humans and nature, growth and limits, technology and ethics
all at the same time.
8) In closing – Why read Malthus again?
Malthus’ math was clearly off in that
he underestimated technological change and demographic transition.
But in trying to think simultaneously about:
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Human desires and numbers that want to expand without limit,
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A planet with real, physical boundaries,
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And inequality and ecological crisis that markets alone can’t fix,
his uncomfortable questions are still very much alive. (Wikipedia)
We don’t revisit Malthus today because it’s fun to say “Humanity is doomed.”
We do it to quietly ask:
“On what assumptions are we basing our optimism?
And are those assumptions really valid for the Earth and for all of humanity?”
At this point, the key issue is not
“pessimists vs. optimists,” shouting at each other from opposite corners.
The real question is:
“If we want a sustainable optimism,
what values, institutions, and ways of thinking
do we need to redesign from the ground up?”
On that question, Malthus, the resource optimists,
and even the anonymous posters on DC Gallery can each still offer
at least one meaningful line in the conversation.
